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Call key data
The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts
Funding Program
Horizon Europe: Cluster 5 - Climate, Energy and Mobility
Call number
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04
deadlines
Opening
06.05.2025
Deadline
24.09.2025 17:00
Funding rate
100%
Call budget
€ 12,000,000.00
Estimated EU contribution per project
€ 6,000,000.00
Link to the call
Link to the submission
Call content
short description
Anthropogenic climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events – the latest IPCC report warns that anthropogenic climate is already affecting weather and climate extremes across the globe and with every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes will continue to become larger.
Call objectives
Attribution science tries to answer the question of what the role of anthropogenic climate change relative to other drivers (natural and non-climate anthropogenic factors), is for a given extreme climate or weather event. It is relatively nascent, and while it is fast advancing, numerous gaps remain, including on compound and cascading events, the interplay between slow and fast onset events, the appropriate statistical methods and the proper consideration of various degrees of vulnerabilities and exposure.
Some tail events, risks and associated impacts are inherently poorly represented in current simulation records. The latest advances in numerical modelling, AI and Machine Learning, counter-factual datasets using large ensembles and digital twins, for example, could increase the sample size of simulated rare – including compound and cascading - events and offer opportunities to explore the decision-making and estimated impact space (e.g., in relation to water, air pollution, ecosystem status, land use – and their combination). Propagating uncertainties along the causality chain is an important aspect to address in this context.
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Expected effects and impacts
Actions should address all of the following aspects:
- Advance attribution science through a combination of observations, models, attribution methodologies applied to the physical climate conditions (fast and slow-onset event attribution for a more accurate estimation of how the likelihood and intensity of the hazards have been altered by anthropogenic climate change) and impacts (identifying how the interplay between anthropogenic climate change and local implemented responses affects residual impacts);
- Advance the understanding of the interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change both in the recent past (since the instrumental data is available) and in the near- and mid- term future (2025-2060), as well as the interplay between climate and non-climate drivers of impacts, and socially differentiated vulnerability patterns;
- Advance methodologies to collect diverse in-situ and remote sensing observations to develop or contribute to robust extreme event and impact databases;
- In the context of attribution, focus on extreme and slow-onset events and their interactions (including cascading and compound events) and impacts (on human systems and ecosystems), locally implemented responses and their limits (response capacities), with due consideration of vulnerable regions;
- Deliver enhanced methods to separate the effects of climate trends (including in extreme events) from trends in exposure and vulnerability, both in observed datasets and in model scenarios;
- Investigate how different model enhancements (e.g., finer resolution, increased complexity) impact the realism and accuracy of the modelled climate and weather extremes. Strive to investigate inter-model differences and their implications for extreme event attribution and contribute to multi-model and intercomparison approaches (e.g., Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, ISIMIP), including with downscaling and bias correction of global models for better simulation of extreme events;
- Building on latest advances in attribution studies, improve forecasting of extreme climate- and weather-related events and their impacts, and contribute to the evolution of climate services;
- Improve the knowledge of how to operationalise the attribution science and forecasting for informing future planning including in some of the areas relevant for advancing disaster preparedness and prevention capacity building, humanitarian aid operations, and adaptation plans (e.g., early warning systems, disaster risk reduction including with nature-based solutions, emergency relief) via co-design and co-production with operational actors, including citizens and civil society globally and with due consideration of associated challenges in the Global South;
- The results should serve as a basis to ensure policies and actions that follow from the attribution studies can integrate climate justice.
When dealing with models, actions should promote the highest standards of transparency and openness, as much as possible going well beyond documentation and extending to aspects such as assumptions, protocols, code, and data that is managed in compliance with the FAIR principles.
All projects funded under this topic are strongly encouraged to connect, coordinate, and participate in networking and joint activities together, as appropriate. Collaboration with Destination Earth is encouraged. Clustering activities with other relevant ongoing projects (in and out of Horizon Europe) should be envisaged for cross-projects cooperation and results from relevant past and ongoing projects, including XAIDA and CLINT, should be considered.
This topic requires the effective contribution of social sciences and humanities (SSH) disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts, institutions as well as the inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, in order to produce meaningful and significant effects enhancing the societal impact of the related research activities. Citizen Science and other innovative and participatory forms of research could be appropriate for this action.
International cooperation is encouraged, in particular with the Global South in the context of scientific capacity building, disaster risk reduction and strengthening of climate resilience.
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Expected results
Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:
- Advanced understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes (including temperature extremes, heavy precipitation and pluvial floods, river floods, droughts, storms, as well as compound events), and their risks and impacts, including cascading impacts, on human systems and ecosystems;
- Improved methodologies and tools of attribution of extreme climate- and weather-related events, and their impacts, to anthropogenic climate change;
- Enhancement of existing or creation of new pilot global databases of extreme events, impacts and their attribution;
- Advanced knowledge of how attribution science and forecasting can be operationalised for a range of policy purposes, including informing and improving preparedness, civil protection and humanitarian planning for future extreme and slow-onset events, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience and adaptation plans.
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Eligibility Criteria
Regions / countries for funding
Moldova (Moldova), Albania (Shqipëria), Armenia (Հայաստան), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosna i Hercegovina / Босна и Херцеговина), Canada, Faeroes (Føroyar / Færøerne), Georgia (საქართველო), Iceland (Ísland), Israel (ישראל / إِسْرَائِيل), Kosovo (Kosova/Kosovë / Косово), Montenegro (Црна Гора), New Zealand (Aotearoa), North Macedonia (Северна Македонија), Norway (Norge), Serbia (Srbija/Сpбија), Tunisia (تونس /Tūnis), Türkiye, Ukraine (Україна), United Kingdom
eligible entities
EU Body, Education and training institution, Non-Profit Organisation (NPO) / Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO), Other, Private institution, incl. private company (private for profit), Public Body (national, regional and local; incl. EGTCs), Research Institution incl. University, Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME)
Mandatory partnership
Yes
Project Partnership
To be eligible for funding, applicants must be established in one of the following countries:
- the Member States of the European Union, including their outermost regions
- the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) linked to the Member States
- countries associated to Horizon Europe - see list of particpating countries
Only legal entities forming a consortium are eligible to participate in actions provided that the consortium includes, as beneficiaries, three legal entities independent from each other and each established in a different country as follows:
- at least one independent legal entity established in a Member State; and
- at least two other independent legal entities, each established in different Member States or Associated Countries.
Any legal entity, regardless of its place of establishment, including legal entities from non-associated third countries or international organisations (including international European research organisations) is eligible to participate (whether it is eligible for funding or not), provided that the conditions laid down in the Horizon Europe Regulation have been met, along with any other conditions laid down in the specific call topic.
A ‘legal entity’ means any natural or legal person created and recognised as such under national law, EU law or international law, which has legal personality and which may, acting in its own name, exercise rights and be subject to obligations, or an entity without legal personality.
other eligibility criteria
Specific cases:
- Affiliated entities (i.e. entities with a legal or capital link to a beneficiary which participate in the action with similar rights and obligations to the beneficiaries, but which do not sign the grant agreement and therefore do not become beneficiaries themselves) are allowed, if they are eligible for participation and funding.
- Associated partners (i.e. entities which participate in the action without signing the grant agreement, and without the right to charge costs or claim contributions) are allowed, subject to any conditions regarding associated partners set out in the specific call conditions.
- Entities which do not have legal personality under their national law may exceptionally participate, provided that their representatives have the capacity to undertake legal obligations on their behalf, and offer guarantees to protect the EU’s financial interests equivalent to those offered by legal persons.
- Legal entities created under EU law (EU bodies) including decentralised agencies may be part of the consortium, unless provided for otherwise in their basic act.
- International European research organisations are eligible to receive funding. International organisations with headquarters in a Member State or Associated Country are eligible to receive funding for ‘Training and mobility’ actions or when provided for in the specific call/topic conditions. Other international organisations are not eligible to receive funding, unless provided for in the specific call/topic conditions, or if their participation is considered essential for implementing the action by the granting authority.
- Joint Research Centre (JRC)— Where provided for in the specific call conditions, applicants may include in their proposals the possible contribution of the JRC but the JRC will not participate in the preparation and submission of the proposal. Applicants will indicate the contribution that the JRC could bring to the project based on the scope of the topic text. After the evaluation process, the JRC and the consortium selected for funding may come to an agreement on the specific terms of the participation of the JRC. If an agreement is found, the JRC may accede to the grant agreement as beneficiary requesting zero funding or participate as an associated partner, and would accede to the consortium as a member.
- Associations and interest groupings — Entities composed of members (e.g. European research infrastructure consortia (ERICs)) may participate as ‘sole beneficiaries’ or ‘beneficiaries without legal personality’. However, if the action is in practice implemented by the individual members, those members should also participate (either as beneficiaries or as affiliated entities, otherwise their costs will NOT be eligible.
- EU restrictive measures — Entities subject to EU restrictive measures under Article 29 of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU) and Article 215 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU) as well as Article 75 TFEU, are not eligible to participate in any capacity, including as beneficiaries, affiliated entities, associated partners, third parties giving in-kind contributions, subcontractors or recipients of financial support to third parties (if any).
- Legal entities established in Russia, Belarus, or in non-government controlled territories of Ukraine — Given the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the involvement of Belarus, there is currently no appropriate context allowing the implementation of the actions foreseen in this programme with legal entities established in Russia, Belarus, or in non-government controlled territories of Ukraine. Therefore, even where such entities are not subject to EU restrictive measures, such legal entities are not eligible to participate in any capacity. This includes participation as beneficiaries, affiliated entities, associated partners, third parties giving in-kind contributions, subcontractors or recipients of financial support to third parties (if any). Exceptions may be granted on a case-by-case basis for justified reasons.
With specific regard to measures addressed to Russia, following the adoption of the Council Regulation (EU) 2024/1745 of 24 June 2024 (amending Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 of 31 July 2014) concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, legal entities established outside Russia but whose proprietary rights are directly or indirectly owned for more than 50% by a legal person, entity or body established in Russia are also not eligible to participate in any capacity. - Measures for the protection of the Union budget against breaches of the principles of the rule of law in Hungary — Following the Council Implementing Decision (EU) 2022/2506, as of 16 December 2022, no legal commitments can be entered into with Hungarian public interest trusts established under the Hungarian Act IX of 2021 or any entity they maintain. Affected entities may continue to apply to calls for proposals and can participate without receiving EU funding, as associated partners, if allowed by the call conditions. However, as long as the Council measures are not lifted, such entities are not eligible to participate in any funded role (beneficiaries, affiliated entities, subcontractors, recipients of financial support to third parties, etc.).In case of multi-beneficiary grant calls, applicants will be invited to remove or replace that entity in any funded role and/or to change its status into associated partner. Tasks and budget may be redistributed accordingly.
Additional information
Topics
Relevance for EU Macro-Region
EUSDR - EU Strategy for the Danube Region, EUSBSR - EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, EUSALP - EU Strategy for the Alpine Space, EUSAIR - EU Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region
UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs)
Additional Information
Applications must be submitted electronically via the Funders & Tenders Portal electronic submission system (accessible via the topic page in the Search Funding & Tenders section). Paper submissions are NOT possible.
Applications must be submitted using the forms provided inside the electronic submission system (not the templates available on the topic page, which are only for information). The structure and presentation must correspond to the instructions given in the forms.
Applications must be complete and contain all parts and mandatory annexes and supporting documents.
The application form will have two parts:
- Part A (to be filled in directly online) contains administrative information about the applicant organisations (future coordinator and beneficiaries and affiliated entities), the summarised budget for the proposal and call-specific questions;
- Part B (to be downloaded from the Portal submission system, completed and then assembled and re-uploaded as a PDF in the system) contains the technical description of the project.
Annexes and supporting documents will be directly available in the submission system and must be uploaded as PDF files (or other formats allowed by the system).
The limit for a full application (Part B) is 50 pages.
Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025). It is mandatory to submit a detailed budget table using the template available in the Submission system.
Open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action.
Call documents
Horizon Europe Work Programme 2025 Cluster 5 - Climate, Energy and MobilityHorizon Europe Work Programme 2025 Cluster 5 - Climate, Energy and Mobility(2548kB)
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